THE SEASON STARTS HERE

Let’s be honest: at 0–5, this is no longer just another AFC East game. For the Dolphins it feels like the first real line-in-the-sand Sunday of the season. Miami are coming off the bye and their best attacking performance so far—a 24-point effort against Cincinnati—but they still have not led at any point this year. The Jets sit at 2–4, their defense has kept them competitive, and MetLife will be waiting for Miami to make the first mistake. Yet this rivalry has often brought out the best in the Dolphins, who have won five of the past six meetings. If there is a place to reset the season, doing it against the Jets would feel very good indeed.

Five things Miami must do to win

1. Let Willis play fast—but not reckless

Key matchup: Malik Willis vs Minkah Fitzpatrick and the Jets’ disguised coverage. Willis arrives with 849 passing yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions, while Geno Smith has thrown only one pick. That turnover gap is the simplest explanation for why New York are favourites. Miami need defined reads: quick throws to Malik Washington, movement passes that use Willis’s legs and the occasional deep shot only when the look is right. Willis needs to dial back the number of times of goes for broke as the success rate has been limited. Fitzpatrick will try to bait him into forcing a ball over the middle. He does not need to play hero-ball on every snap—patience, clean decisions and a quarterback who lets the game come to him.

2. Run directly at the Jets’ front

Key matchup: Ollie Gordon II and Miami’s interior line vs T’Vondre Sweat and Harrison Phillips. The Dolphins’ ground game is their strongest offensive route into this contest: Miami are averaging 126.6 rushing yards per game, while the Jets are allowing 123. Gordon’s size and downhill style should test a New York front carrying a few injury concerns. Aaron Brewer and the guards must create movement early, keep Miami out of third-and-long and make the Jets bring an extra defender into the box. If Gordon is consistently getting four or five yards, play-action opens up and Willis is no longer fighting the whole defense at once.

3. Give Willis a clean pocket on passing downs

Key matchup: Patrick Paul and Austin Jackson vs David Bailey and Will McDonald IV. The Jets have 17 sacks; Miami have only four. That is a flashing warning light. Bailey leads New York with five sacks, and McDonald’s speed can wreck a drive before it starts, the Dolphins may have caught a break though as McDonald has an unspecified game status after dealing with a toe injury all week. Miami’s tackles must force those rushers around the arc, while the backs and tight ends identify pressure cleanly. Screens, draws and quick throws can slow the rush, but at some point the line simply has to win. This week, pass protection has to become a strength rather than an apology.

4. Bracket Garrett Wilson and make somebody else beat us

Key matchup: Miami’s corners and safeties vs Garrett Wilson, with Geno Smith pulling the strings. Wilson has 35 catches for 418 yards and three touchdowns; he is the obvious player Miami cannot allow to take over. The secondary should challenge him at the line, shade safety help his way and force Smith to work through secondary options such as Omar Cooper. That is easier said than done—Smith has been accurate and careful—but Miami’s defensive backs cannot give Wilson free releases or lose him on scramble drills. Hold him below his usual influence and New York’s low-scoring offense becomes much easier to contain.

5. Win the red zone, the turnover battle and the emotional moments

Key matchup: Jacob Rodriguez and Jordyn Brooks vs Braelon Allen—and possibly Breece Hall. The Jets have struggled to finish drives, including going 0-for-3 in the red zone against New England. Miami must keep that problem alive. Rodriguez, the Dolphins’ leading tackler, and Brooks need to fit the run cleanly against the powerful Allen; if Hall returns from his quadriceps issue, Miami must also account for his burst and receiving threat. Most importantly, the Dolphins cannot hand New York short fields. One takeaway, one fourth-down stop or one special-teams play could swing a game expected to be tight and low-scoring. This is the week to be the calmer, tougher team.

The head says this will be ugly, tense and decided late. The heart says the bye gives Jeff Hafley’s team a chance to simplify the offense, lean on Gordon and finally play from in front. Miami do not need a perfect performance; they need a disciplined one. Protect Willis, control the ground game, take Wilson away and finish drives. Do that, and the Dolphins could steal a win, there aren’t going to be many chances this season, but this is one of them. Looking ahead and considering where teams are presently the only other games that could produce a win are the Colts, the Jets again and the Chargers. The remainder of the schedule is brutal if we are being honest.